When US President Donald Trump announced a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visas starting Sunday, it sent shockwaves through India’s $283 billion IT sector. With 57% of its revenue tied to the US market and 71% of H-1B approvals last year going to India, the industry must rewrite a decades-old playbook built on rotating talent across borders.
A New Chapter for the American Dream
“The ‘American Dream’ for aspiring workers will be tough,” says Ganesh Natarajan, former CEO of Zensar Technologies. Firms are expected to curb cross-border travel, ramp up offshore delivery and tap talent pools in India, Mexico and the Philippines.
Industry-wide Ripples
Big clients like Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet’s Google are pausing onshore rotations and will increasingly hire US citizens or green card holders. Emkay Global Chief Economist Madhavi Arora warns that this could disrupt the long-standing onsite-offshore model, pressuring margins and supply chains.
Legal Battles on the Horizon
Immigration lawyers report a flurry of questions after the proclamation, which applies only to new applicants. Vic Goel of Goel & Anderson predicts firms will reserve H-1B filings for truly business-critical roles, reshaping demand. Sophie Alcorn from Alcorn Immigration Law adds, “We are anticipating several lawsuits immediately forthcoming this week.”
The Rise of Global Capability Centers
As onshore costs climb, US firms are poised to expand their global capability centers (GCCs). “Time-zone proximity will accelerate resourcing in Canada, Mexico and Latin America,” says ISG’s Steven Hall. Meanwhile, India—home to over half the world’s GCCs—could host more than 2,200 centers by 2030, generating nearly $100 billion in market size and 2.8 million jobs.
Constellation Research’s Ray Wang sees a “new world order on services economics,” with more automation, AI-driven delivery and local hiring in the US. For India’s IT champions, agility and innovation will be key to thriving in this reshaped landscape.
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Trump's H-1B visa crackdown upends Indian IT industry's playbook
cgtn.com
