In a pivotal moment for Germany, Friedrich Merz is on the brink of becoming the next chancellor after leading the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance to emerge as the largest faction in the recent Bundestag elections. Securing approximately 28.5% of the vote, Merz's coalition outpaced the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which garnered around 20.5%.
Despite achieving victory in a high-turnout election with around 84% participation, the CDU/CSU alliance faced its second-lowest performance in nearly eight decades. This result sets the stage for intricate coalition negotiations, with Merz aiming to establish a new government by mid-April.
The next challenge lies in forming a viable partnership. The pronounced growth of the AfD, which surged by about 10% since the last election, and the left-wing Linke, which secured over 8%, reflect a shifting political landscape influenced significantly by young voters.
Given the mainstream parties' staunch opposition to the AfD, a coalition including them is off the table. Similarly, partnering with Linke proves incompatible for the CDU/CSU alliance. This narrows the primary coalition contenders to the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) who, despite falling to around 16.5%, remain the most feasible yet complex partner for Merz.
A grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD could secure a small majority in the 630-seat parliament, requiring 316 seats. While their platforms align on key external issues like the Ukraine crisis and defense, significant compromises would be necessary on domestic matters such as the economy and immigration. Merz's hardline stance on immigration, advocating for permanent border controls and asylum restrictions, contrasts with the SPD's call for more nuanced solutions.
Alternative coalition options include the Greens, though stark differences on immigration policies pose challenges, and the Free Democrats who failed to cross the 5% threshold required for Bundestag representation. The narrow miss by the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance further complicates the landscape.
With Olaf Scholz serving as caretaker chancellor until a new government is formed, and amidst growing European concerns over U.S. policies—which Merz has openly critiqued—the urgency to establish a stable leadership is palpable. Negotiators face the task of bridging policy divides to ensure a seamless transition and avoid political instability.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
