Global Trade Transformation: Can the Global South Thrive Without the U.S.?

For decades, the United States has played a pivotal role in shaping global trade, establishing the rules and managing supply chains that drive the world economy.

However, the balance of power is gradually shifting. Emerging economies in the Global South, spearheaded by a rapidly evolving China, are capturing a larger share of global commerce and influence.

Recalibration of Economic Power

China and India now represent 26 percent of global GDP, up from just nine percent at the start of the millennium. This substantial growth can be attributed to rapid industrialization, export-driven policies, and significant technological advancements.

Key reforms, such as China's creation of special economic zones and India's economic liberalization in the 1990s, have been crucial in propelling their economic expansion.

Meanwhile, the collective share of Western economies has declined from 56 percent to 42 percent. The U.S., once a manufacturing leader, has seen its share of global output decrease from 30 percent in 2000 to just 16 percent.

This shift goes beyond changes in economic metrics; it signifies a fundamental transformation in trade networks and priorities. Supply chains are being restructured, regional integration is speeding up, and the dominance of traditional economic hubs is being challenged.

As the Global South forges stronger economic ties, it is redefining its relationships with long-established centers of power, including the United States.

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