July 14, 2025 marks a decade since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) brought hope for a revived Iranian nuclear deal. Once hailed as a landmark in multilateral diplomacy, today the agreement winds down amid renewed tensions and a fractured global landscape.
In its early years, the JCPOA delivered on its promises. From 2016 to 2018, International Atomic Energy Agency reports confirmed Iran met strict uranium enrichment limits and welcomed intrusive inspections. In return, nuclear-related sanctions were lifted by the EU and the United Nations, and billions of dollars of Iranian assets were unfrozen. Western firms signed major investment deals, signaling Tehran’s gradual reentry into global markets.
Everything changed in May 2018 when the United States withdrew from the deal under its maximum pressure campaign. Companies rushed to exit Iran to avoid U.S. penalties, while Europe’s INSTEX mechanism struggled to gain traction. The result? Iran’s economy contracted sharply and the deal’s economic incentives evaporated.
In response, Iran began reducing its own commitments—exceeding enrichment limits, installing advanced centrifuges, and curbing IAEA access. By 2021, the JCPOA existed more on paper than in practice. Efforts by the Biden administration to rejoin faltered over sequencing debates and the designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Diplomatic hopes dimmed further in mid-2024 when Iran paused nuclear talks, citing U.S. support for Israel amid an escalating Middle East conflict. A 2024 strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate and Tehran’s unprecedented missile response intensified hostilities, sidelining nuclear diplomacy.
With the deal’s sunset clauses taking effect, the UN Security Council now faces a pivotal choice: reinstate full sanctions or find a new path forward. The JCPOA’s unraveling lays bare the fragility of multilateral governance in an era of deep-seated mistrust.
As we reflect on ten years of the JCPOA, its legacy is a powerful reminder: complex agreements demand sustained political will and mutual trust. In a world charting new power balances, the challenge remains—how do we rebuild bridges when the foundations of diplomacy keep shifting?
Reference(s):
Ten years after JCPOA: A test of multilateralism in a fragmented world
cgtn.com
