On June 24, a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran raised hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East. But within days, the United States and Iran traded a barrage of threats that cast doubt on the truce's sustainability.
On June 27, President Donald Trump said if Iran pushes uranium enrichment too far, he would again consider bombing its nuclear sites. He also canceled plans to lift sanctions and criticized Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
A day earlier, on June 26, Khamenei praised an Iranian missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar as a direct rebuke to Washington and declared that Iranians will never surrender to external pressure.
Analysts argue that Trump's shifting statements may mask a broader strategy to secure peace in Gaza, reinforce Israel's defenses, and then turn attention back to Tehran, especially after Iranian missiles reached deep into Israeli territory during the 12-day conflict.
There are fears that Washington could replicate elements of the 2003 Iraq campaign, which lasted eight years and resulted in over 4,000 U.S. military deaths and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi casualties. Some experts suggest the U.S. might form an international coalition to counter Iran, driven by media narratives about Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Despite a U.S. strike on three Iranian nuclear sites on June 22, insiders warn that Tehran's programs could soon be fully operational again. Critics say the U.S. would be mistaken to think that blocking an Israeli plan to target Khamenei signals a move away from regime-change efforts, efforts that date back to 2003, even after Iran paused enrichment and allowed IAEA inspections in exchange for eased sanctions.
Across the Arab world, skepticism is rising about America's ability to broker lasting peace. Under an America First banner, Trump appears determined to reclaim a global leadership role, whether through threats, tariffs, or military force.
The coming weeks will test the resilience of the ceasefire. Will diplomatic pragmatism prevail, or will the region be drawn back into the cycle of conflict?
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U.S.-Iran war of words casts doubt over ceasefire sustainability
cgtn.com
