The Chinese mainland's GDP growth rebounded to 5.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 4.6% in the third quarter. This growth surpassed market expectations of 5%, driven by robust expansionary policies implemented since the end of September.
In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value increased to 6.2% from 5.4% in November, exceeding the anticipated 5.4%. Exports played a pivotal role in this surge. The \"rush to export\" effect, prompted by tariff threats, and the accelerated overseas expansion by Chinese enterprises anticipating tariffs contributed significantly. Specifically, the year-on-year export growth of general machinery soared by 15.0 percentage points to 29.0%, household appliances by 4.0 percentage points to 14.1%, and automobile exports also saw remarkable improvements. This trend highlights a clear overlap between industries experiencing increased exports and those with higher industrial added value.
Total retail sales of consumer goods in December rose to 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3% in November. Key drivers of this growth included \"trade-in policy\" related items such as household appliances, communication equipment, and daily necessities, which remained strong contributors to consumer spending.
Fixed asset investment saw a slight decline in its year-on-year growth rate, decreasing to 3.2% in December from 3.3% in November. Despite this minor dip, sectors within midstream and upstream manufacturing maintained high levels of prosperity. Investments in special equipment, metal products, general equipment, and non-ferrous smelting saw significant year-on-year growth rates ranging from 10.7% to 19.7%. Conversely, downstream industries like food, automobile manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing experienced a slowdown.
Real estate development investment, which had been a major drag on fixed asset investment over the past two years, saw its year-on-year decline widen to 13.3% in December from 11.6% in November. However, the high base effect remains a factor, and the two-year compound growth rate of real estate investment is showing marginal recovery. This recovery is attributed to improved demand supported by favorable policies. Additionally, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales revenue increased to 2.4% in December from 1.0% in November.
Looking ahead to 2025, the strong GDP rebound and robust export growth indicate a positive outlook for the Chinese mainland's economy. Continued support for industrial expansion and consumer spending is expected to sustain economic momentum, fostering a stable environment for growth and investment in the coming year.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
