The recent dramatic developments in Syria have reshaped the country's trajectory, signifying a potential end to decades of Bashar al-Assad's rule. The fall of Damascus and the apparent disarray within Assad's government mark a pivotal moment in the nation's protracted civil war, plunging the region into a new phase of uncertainty.
Armed opposition forces, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made significant advances, capturing key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before moving towards the capital. These gains, bolstered by widespread defections within Assad's military, indicate a diminishing capacity of the prevailing regime to maintain control. Damascus, once a symbol of central authority, now faces political and social fragmentation, with opposition forces consolidating power across northern and western Syria.
HTS has strategically rebranded itself to project an image of moderation, distancing from its extremist roots by engaging diplomatically with various factions, including Kurdish groups and minority communities. This move underscores HTS's efforts to gain international legitimacy and secure a role in the future governance of post-Assad Syria.
Türkiye's Strategic Calculations
Türkiye's involvement in Syria has reached a critical juncture. Ankara has long pursued a multifaceted strategy aimed at securing its southern border, countering Kurdish autonomy movements, and managing refugee flows. The recent developments have intensified Türkiye's role as a key stakeholder in shaping Syria's future.
Türkiye-backed forces, operating under the Syrian National Army (SNA), have played a significant role in stabilizing areas vacated by Assad's forces. Concurrently, Türkiye's tacit approval of HTS movements through its controlled zones highlights Ankara's pragmatic approach to navigating the complex conflict. However, this strategy carries inherent risks, particularly as HTS expands its territorial reach and asserts greater control.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the need for a peaceful and inclusive resolution to the Syrian conflict. However, Türkiye's geopolitical priorities, including its stance on Kurdish autonomy and broader regional aspirations, place Ankara in a delicate balancing act. The presence of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led coalition in eastern Syria, further complicates Türkiye's calculus, raising concerns about potential clashes over territorial and political influence.
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Shifting dynamics in Syria highlight a nation on the brink of change
cgtn.com
