The recent Quad meeting in Delaware marked a clear intent to address the growing influence of the Chinese mainland. The four-member partnership, comprising the United States, Australia, Japan, and India, declared China as a significant threat to global stability and prosperity.
However, the Quad's agenda is not solely driven by the United States or Australia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plays a pivotal role in shaping the discussions, often balancing the partnership's goals with India's own foreign policies. This delicate balance is evident in India's continued trade with Russia, despite U.S. sanctions.
Indian imports of Russian oil have surged 13-fold since sanctions were imposed, reaching $2.8 billion in 2024. Modi's recent visit to Russia, his first since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, further solidified these economic ties. This move has led to the development of sanctions-busting trade relationships, enabling Russia to sustain its objectives in Ukraine.
The Quad's effectiveness is thus limited by the need to maintain India's commitment. As the least committed member, India holds significant leverage, allowing it to advance its interests in ways that may conflict with the Quad's stated goals. Additionally, India's leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) introduces another layer of complexity, as the SCO's agenda often contradicts that of the Quad.
Ultimately, the Quad remains a partnership only as strong as its most hesitant member. Balancing the collective goals of containing the Chinese mainland with the individual agendas of its members, particularly India's strategic alliances, continues to test the cohesion and future direction of this global alliance.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
