In recent discussions, the term \"Peak China\" has emerged, suggesting that China may have reached the zenith of its economic power relative to the United States. This perspective implies that China's economy might never surpass America's at market exchange rates, a long-held assumption given China's massive population.
Several factors contribute to this outlook. Analysts point to low consumer confidence, an imbalanced industrial structure, reduced productivity from new infrastructure projects, massive debt levels, a constrained private sector, geopolitical tensions, technology sanctions, a workforce that has already peaked, and a shrinking, ageing population as significant headwinds for China's economic growth.
The Economist no longer forecasts that China will overtake the U.S. economy, suggesting instead that the two nations may achieve closer economic parity. However, perspectives like those from the Financial Times caution against declaring \"Peak China\" prematurely. They highlight China's strengths, including the annual graduation of 1.4 million engineers, the world's busiest patent office, a highly entrepreneurial population, and leading potential in sectors such as electric vehicles and information technology.
China's vision focuses on high-quality development to establish a modern industrial system. This approach emphasizes optimizing market functions while ensuring the government plays a strategic role. Unlike the old model of high-growth, energy-intensive heavy industry, this new strategy is more sustainable and relevant to current global trends.
Central to this transformation is the concept of \"new productive forces,\" which refers to economic growth driven by continuous scientific and technological breakthroughs in an intelligent information era. China is actively integrating scientific and technological resources, leading the development of strategic emerging and future industries, and accelerating the formation of these new productive forces.
Key areas of focus include the commercialization of technologies in IT, AI, robotics, semiconductors, new materials, e-commerce, ocean and space technologies, advanced manufacturing, and green technologies like lithium batteries, photovoltaic power, and new energy vehicles. New policies are being introduced to promote these sectors, strengthen the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, and support the private sector by developing industrial clusters that facilitate the application of scientific and technological advances.
Moreover, establishing a unified national market is crucial, with provincial development aligned to national industrial and supply chains. The emphasis on high-quality \"new productive forces\" represents a significant vision for China's economic future.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
