Brace yourselves, coastal communities and energy sectors! Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) have issued a forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting it to be \"extremely active\". This anticipation is driven by warmer sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear, which together create optimal conditions for hurricane formation during the summer and fall months.
According to the CSU forecast, we can expect a total of 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, of which 5 are projected to be major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 miles per hour (178 kph). To put this into perspective, an average hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major cyclones.
Last year was no small feat either, with 20 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including 3 major ones like Hurricane Idalia, which wreaked havoc along Florida's west coast as a Category 3 storm. CSU's predictions align with other experts in the field, including AccuWeather, which recently estimated a 10-15% chance of seeing 30 or more named storms this season.
Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the CSU forecast, highlights that the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures is a key factor fueling these intense storms. Additionally, the anticipated decline of the El Niño weather pattern means fewer high winds to disrupt developing hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
The implications of this forecast are significant for both coastal communities and the energy industry. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico alone accounts for 15% of the nation's crude oil production and 5% of its dry natural gas production, with nearly half of the country's oil-refining capacity situated along its shores. An active hurricane season could pose substantial risks to these critical infrastructures.
As we approach the hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, staying informed and prepared is more crucial than ever. CSU's forecast serves as a vital tool for businesses, policymakers, and residents to mitigate potential impacts and safeguard assets.
Reference(s):
Forecasters predict ‘extremely active’ Atlantic hurricane season
cgtn.com
