A groundbreaking study has revealed a strong connection between Arctic ice loss and the increasing likelihood of hotter and drier summers across Europe. This discovery suggests that European weather patterns could become more predictable up to a year in advance.
Marilena Oltmanns, a research scientist at the National Oceanography Center (NOC) in the United Kingdom, led the research. \"The location and strength of meltwater occurrences in the North Atlantic in winter provide valuable clues about the location, strength and character of European weather anomalies in the subsequent summers,\" Oltmanns explained.
The study, published in Weather and Climate Dynamics, proposes a mechanism where meltwater in the North Atlantic sets off a chain reaction that triggers hotter and drier conditions over Europe during the summer months. As land and sea ice continue to melt, an increasing amount of freshwater is expected to flow into the North Atlantic, influencing atmospheric circulation patterns.
Utilizing satellite data, the researchers found that stronger freshwater anomalies have a rapid impact on atmospheric circulation, heightening the risk of warm, dry European summers, heatwaves, and droughts. These findings are significant on timescales ranging from years to decades, enhancing the predictability of summer weather in Europe by at least one winter in advance.
The NOC highlighted that this study marks a significant advancement in climate modeling. Improved predictive models will enable industries and stakeholders to better prepare for specific weather conditions. For example, farmers can optimize crop selection, energy sectors can anticipate fuel usage, and communities can better prepare for potential flooding events.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
