Deadly wildfires like those that swept through central Chile, claiming at least 133 lives this month, are set to become more frequent as climate change intensifies global temperatures and arid conditions, according to a recent report.
These fires mark Chile's deadliest natural disaster since the 2010 earthquake, which resulted in approximately 500 fatalities. Strong winds and soaring temperatures fueled the rapid spread of the flames into populated regions near the cities of Vina del Mar and Valparaiso.
The World Weather Attribution group, comprising international scientists examining the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, analyzed the surge in conditions conducive to wildfires—namely temperature, wind speed, and atmospheric moisture—using the Hot Dry Windy Index (HDWI).
The report revealed that neither global warming nor the El Niño phenomenon were the primary drivers behind the recent spike in HDWI during the fires. This coastal region of Chile has been experiencing cooling trends, while inland areas continue to warm.
However, scientists warn that this trend will shift with ongoing global warming.
\"We expect a lot of these fires to happen in the future,\" said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute and co-author of the study.
Under the current global warming scenario of 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the scientists predict that a four-day period with an HDWI similar to the recent fires could occur once every 30 years.
\"However, if warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), it's likely the fire-prone weather will become more intense around Vina del Mar and Valparaiso,\" added Tomas Carrasco, a researcher at the University of Chile and co-author of the report.
Based on current climate pledges, global temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, according to the United Nations.
The study also highlighted that urban growth and changes in land use significantly contributed to the lethality of the fires.
Mauricio Santos of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in Colombia noted that the expansion of pine and eucalyptus plantations has eradicated natural firebreaks over decades, while urban areas have encroached upon forested regions.
\"We found that the most devastating fires happened in areas with significant land-use changes and where urban planning was inadequate,\" Santos stated, emphasizing the need for improved warning systems, evacuation plans, and fireproofing measures.
Reference(s):
Chile risks repeat of deadly wildfires because of climate change
cgtn.com
