In a landmark moment this year, the Chinese mainland's goods trade surplus with the world has surpassed $1 trillion, signaling strong momentum amid nearly year-long tariff talks with the United States.
Data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, total merchandise trade climbed 3.6% year-on-year to 41.21 trillion yuan ($5.83 trillion). Key trends underline diversification, competitive manufacturing, and strategic import dynamics driving this outcome.
Diversified Exports Fuel Growth
According to Zhang Monan, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, the Chinese mainland not only leads global trade volume but stands as the largest manufacturing power. The mainland ranks first or near the top in 504 industrial products worldwide, and this complete industrial structure and supply chain system underpin resilience in a complex international environment.
Morgan Stanley economists project that by 2030, the mainland's share of global goods exports will rise from about 15% to 16.5%, propelled by advanced manufacturing leadership. Additionally, a strategic pivot towards emerging markets has broadened trade partnerships, with ASEAN and the European Union emerging as vital engines of expansion.
Rising Tech and Green Exports
Feng Lin of Dongfang Jincheng Research highlights a surge in AI-driven investment this year, fueling transformed manufacturing and a leap in exports of chips and new energy vehicles. From January to November, integrated circuit exports reached 1.29 trillion yuan, up 25.6%, while automobile shipments grew 17.6% to 896.9 billion yuan.
Imports Boost Surplus
Lower global commodity prices have also widened the surplus. Research by China Merchants Securities shows that falling prices for crude oil, coal, and iron ore slowed import bills despite rising volumes. For example, the mainland imported 1.139 billion tonnes of iron ore, up 1.4%, while average prices fell 9.4%.
Looking Ahead
As 2025 draws to a close, analysts will watch how these trends shape global commerce in the year ahead.
Reference(s):
China's $1 trln+ trade surplus: Diversified exports, expanding imports
cgtn.com
