In recent weeks, strained relations between the Chinese mainland and Japan have triggered a wave of travel disruptions. Over 500,000 Japan-bound flight tickets from the Chinese mainland have been canceled, and several major travel agencies have revoked group tours, delivering a significant blow to Japan's tourism sector.
Industry analysts at the Japan Tourism Research Institute estimate that if these tensions continue into late 2026, spending by visitors from the Chinese mainland could decline by more than 2 trillion yen (about 13 billion USD). Such a drop would ripple through local economies, from Tokyo's luxury hotels to small ryokan townships in rural regions.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism have recently advised residents of the Chinese mainland to avoid traveling to Japan, citing security concerns. The advisory marks a rare joint statement and has only intensified travelers' reluctance.
Experts warn that remarks made earlier this month by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on the Taiwan region have further strained trust. "Unless Tokyo takes concrete steps to rebuild confidence, we could see a 50 percent decline in mainland visitors next year," says tourism consultant Hiroshi Tanaka.
Local businesses are already feeling the pressure. In Kyoto, cafe owner Aiko Nakamura reports a 30 percent drop in daily bookings since early November. "We rely on tour groups for about 40 percent of our revenue," she explains. "Without them, it's been tough to cover costs."
To counter the slump, industry voices call on the Japanese government and private sector to launch a targeted campaign highlighting safety measures and cultural exchange initiatives. Digital nomads and independent travelers, who have grown in numbers this year, could be a key demographic if they regain confidence in cross-border travel.
As global youth and travelers seek immersive, sustainable experiences, restoring the flow of visitors from the Chinese mainland will be crucial for Japan's tourism recovery. All eyes are on Tokyo to see if it can bridge the diplomatic gap and revive one of the world's most dynamic travel markets.
Reference(s):
Chinese travel pullback puts major strain on Japan's tourism industry
cgtn.com
