Human-driven climate change is softening the bite of extreme cold events, according to groundbreaking research from Chinese and U.S. scientists. The joint study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, reveals that global warming has decreased both the likelihood and severity of harsh winters – overturning assumptions about climate change intensifying cold snaps.
Researchers analyzed the December 2023 cold wave in eastern China, finding that 83% of its intensity stemmed from natural atmospheric patterns. Crucially, anthropogenic warming reduced the event's harshness by 22%, with similar cold waves now 92% less likely than in pre-industrial times.
'Our data shows climate change acts as a moderator for extreme cold,' said lead researcher Qian Cheng from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. The team projects such events could become 95% rarer by 2100 under moderate emissions scenarios, with temperatures nearly 2°C milder.
While carbon neutrality targets might preserve current cold extremes, the findings highlight a paradoxical reality: communities must balance climate adaptation with preparedness for occasional cold shocks, even in a warming world.
Reference(s):
Climate change is weakening extreme cold events, study finds
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