In a research facility in the northwest of Beijing, molecular biologist Li Jieping and his team harvest a cluster of seven unusually small potatoes, one as tiny as a quail's egg, from a potted plant.
Grown under conditions that simulate predictions of higher temperatures at the end of the century, the potatoes signal a concerning future for food security.
Weighing just 136 grams, these tubers are less than half the size of typical Chinese potatoes, which are often twice the size of a baseball.
As the world's largest potato producer, China plays a crucial role in global food security due to potatoes' high yield compared to other staple crops. However, potatoes are particularly vulnerable to heat, and climate change—driven by fossil fuel emissions—is pushing temperatures to dangerous new heights, exacerbating issues like drought and flooding.
Li, a researcher at the International Potato Center (CIP) in Beijing, is leading a three-year study into the effects of higher temperatures on potatoes, focusing on China's two most common varieties.
\"I worry about what will happen in the future,\" Li said. \"Farmers will harvest fewer potato tubers, it will influence food security.\"
The team grew their crop over three months in a walk-in chamber set at 3 degrees Celsius above the current average temperature in northern Hebei and Inner Mongolia, regions where potatoes are typically grown in China.
Their research, published in the journal Climate Smart Agriculture this month, found that higher temperatures accelerated tuber growth by 10 days but reduced potato yields by more than half.
According to a United Nations report released in October, under current climate policy initiatives, the world could face as much as 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
In Inner Mongolia, dozens of workers clutching white sacks rush to gather potatoes dug up from the soil before the next downpour.
\"The biggest challenge for potatoes this year is the heavy rain,\" said manager Wang Shiyi. \"It has caused various diseases… and greatly slowed down the harvest progress.\"
Meanwhile, seed potato producer Yakeshi Senfeng Potato Industry Company has invested in aeroponic systems, where plants are grown in the air under controlled conditions.
Farmers are increasingly demanding potato varieties that are higher-yielding and less susceptible to disease, particularly late blight, which caused the Irish Potato Famine of the mid-19th century and thrives in warm and humid conditions.
\"Some new and more aggressive strains have begun to appear, and they are more resistant to traditional prevention and control methods,\" said general manager Li Xuemin, explaining the Inner Mongolia-based company's strategy.
The research by CIP, headquartered in Lima, is part of a collaborative effort with the Chinese government to help farmers adapt to warmer, wetter conditions.
In the greenhouse outside Li's lab, workers swab pollen on white potato flowers to develop heat-tolerant varieties.
Li says Chinese farmers will need to make changes within the next decade, such as planting during spring instead of summer or moving to even higher altitudes to escape the heat.
\"Farmers have to start preparing for climate change,\" Li said. \"If we don't find a solution, they will make less money from lower yields, and the price of potatoes may rise.\"
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
