Chinese experts have indicated that the U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea is set to increase, even with an upcoming leadership change at the White House. However, they emphasize that the overall strategic stability in the region is expected to remain steady.
During a recent session hosted by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), experts discussed the implications of growing military activities in these vital waters. Wu Shicun, director of the academic committee at China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, highlighted that while the U.S. military presence is projected to expand, the transition in U.S. leadership might alter the specific dynamics of this militarization.
\"The U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea will intensify, but will be different as the White House changes hands. Unilateral actions by claimant states will become more diverse,\" Wu stated. He also noted that the current 'simplified version' of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea serves as a tool for de-escalating disputes but offers limited constraints on individual nations' behaviors.
The SCSPI Report on the Navigation and Overflight Situation in the South China Sea reveals that the U.S. military maintains a significant presence, logging over 5,000 ship-days and conducting around 8,000 military aircraft sorties annually in the region.
Despite concerns over rising militarization, experts remain \"cautiously optimistic\" about the broader strategic outlook. Professor Hu Bo, director of SCSPI and the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, emphasized that both China and the U.S. share a strong consensus on avoiding direct conflict, even as they prepare for potential worst-case scenarios.
The role of regional players like the Philippines was also discussed. Experts suggest that the Philippines may continue its \"low-intensity\" engagements with China, potentially leveraging U.S.-China strategic competition to advance its territorial claims.
Ultimately, while the U.S. is expected to maintain its intervention in South China Sea affairs to protect its interests, there is hope that Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) will continue to promote stability in this bustling maritime region. The South China Sea remains one of the world's busiest and most prosperous seas, with over 1.5 million ship passages annually and approximately 40 percent of global goods trade transiting through its waters.
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U.S. militarization of South China Sea to grow, but stability remains
cgtn.com
