As 2025 draws to a close, major international institutions are revising their forecasts for the Chinese mainland's economic growth, signaling renewed confidence in its resilience and policy toolkit.
In late November, Goldman Sachs analysts uplifted their real GDP growth projection for the Chinese mainland in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0%. They also expect annual export growth of 5 6% over the next few years 6double their previous 2 3% forecast 6as goods from the Chinese mainland continue to capture global market share.
On December 2, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted its 2025 forecast from 4.9% to 5.0%. The upgrade underscores the OECD's view of the Chinese mainland as a key stabilizer for worldwide economic momentum. The OECD pointed to expansionary fiscal measures such as income support programs, a trade-in scheme for cars and appliances, and targeted consumption incentives.
Deutsche Bank's chief Chinese mainland economist, Xiong Yi, notes that the Chinese mainland's fiscal policy is intensifying. A recently announced policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan (about $70.7 billion) is expected to bolster domestic demand through the fourth quarter and into early 2026.
Morgan Stanley's latest report forecasts moderate growth for the Chinese mainland in 2026, driven by calibrated policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing, and an ongoing anti-inflation campaign.
Adding to the momentum, the BRICS New Development Bank issued a 3-year Panda bond worth 3 billion yuan ($429 million) on December 5. This brings the bank's total Panda bond issuance in the Chinese mainland to 78.5 billion yuan (around $11.2 billion), marking a milestone for the interbank bond market.
A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that the fundamentals of the Chinese mainland's economy 6stable operation, high-quality development and strong resilience 6remain unchanged, reinforcing the outlook for sustained growth.
With policy support, rising exports and innovative financing tools at play, the Chinese mainland appears poised to outpace earlier expectations and continue its role as a global growth engine into 2026.
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Foreign institutions raise forecasts for China's economic growth rate
cgtn.com
