Black Friday has long been a holiday shopping cornerstone, driving up to 40 percent of Q4 sales, but this year U.S. retailers and consumers found themselves in a high-stakes game of discount chicken.
Economic Uncertainty Holds Back Spending
This November, consumer confidence dipped to 88.7—its lowest since April—from 95.5 in October, according to the latest Conference Board survey. With only 20 percent of shoppers treating Black Friday as their main shopping kickoff, many began hunting deals earlier (59 percent) or will wait until the last minute (22 percent).
Trust Issues and Pricing Ploys
Shoppers are growing wary of false discounts and dynamic pricing. A Lightspeed Commerce survey found 84 percent believe retailers inflate pre-Black Friday prices to exaggerate discounts. Meanwhile, a WalletHub review of 3,100 items showed 36 percent of deals offered no real savings, and nearly 10 percent cost more than before the season.
The AI Arms Race
Retailers deploy AI-driven pricing engines to personalize deals and maximize profit, while consumers turn to generative AI tools to sniff out genuine markdowns. Deloitte’s 2025 holiday retail survey reveals 33 percent of shoppers plan to use AI for holiday buys—rising to 43 percent among Gen Z. Since November 24, OpenAI’s shopping research feature has helped buyers assess promotion authenticity, but differing algorithms mean two shoppers searching the same item may see very different prices.
Tariffs Tighten Margins
Meanwhile, rising tariffs are squeezing discounts. U.S. tariffs on imports jumped from 2.4 percent at the start of 2025 to 17.9 percent by late October. Upstream Brands, which typically earns 35 percent of annual revenue in the holidays, says tariffs forced it to cut back on deals—choosing to raise prices and absorb costs rather than slash margins.
“Santa Claus is going to show up, kids are not going to be too disappointed,” says Marshal Cohen of Circana. “But don’t look for the tree to be overflowing with boxes underneath.”
Scams Multiply as AI Advances
Cyber risks spiked alongside holiday hype. NordVPN reports a 620 percent rise in phishing emails and a 250 percent jump in fake e-commerce sites, many leveraging AI to mimic major retailers and generate fake reviews.
Looking Ahead
Deloitte finds average planned spending for Black Friday–Cyber Monday dropped 4 percent to $622, with 77 percent expecting prices to climb and 57 percent bracing for more economic headwinds. As both sides harness AI, the stalemate may last into the new year—keeping holiday shoppers and retailers alike guessing who will blink first.
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U.S. retailers, customers face off in Black Friday stalemate
cgtn.com
