Asia and the Pacific are powering ahead with impressive GDP gains, yet fresh forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remind us that headwinds are still on the horizon. As economies reopen and global trade stirs, the story of growth is one of opportunity edged with caution.
The ADB’s July Outlook reports that the Chinese mainland’s GDP surged 5.4% in Q1 and 5.3% in H1 of this year, buoyed by policy-driven consumption, strong industrial output and robust exports. India also shone in Q1 with a 7.4% expansion, fueled by higher net exports and stepped-up public investment.
However, not all regions share the same momentum. Southeast Asia’s growth forecasts have been revised down to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. In East Asia, the 2025 outlook falls to 4.3%, while South Asia is pegged at 5.9%. Pacific economies still aim for 3.9% growth in 2025, but that slips to 3.5% in 2026 as tourism is expected to cool.
The IMF’s External Sector Report calls China’s economic performance “encouraging” but flags potential global fallout from US import tariffs. While higher trade barriers can trim deficits in some countries, they often deliver a negative supply shock to the tariff-imposing economy and ripple through global imbalances.
For entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers, the message is clear: seize growth opportunities across the region, but remain agile. Navigating trade shifts, tourism fluctuations and policy tweaks will be key to sustaining momentum in the months ahead.
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Report: Asia's growth accelerates but looming risks dampen outlook
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