Global banks are raising their growth estimates for China after surprising data showed the economy expanded by 5.3% in the first half of 2025. This beat most forecasts and set off a wave of optimism among investors, entrepreneurs and tech enthusiasts worldwide.
Strong H1 Data
Industrial output jumped 6.4%, fueled by a 9.5% surge in high-tech manufacturing. Retail sales climbed 5%, picking up speed from the first quarter, while exports grew 7.2%. Analysts say these numbers reflect robust global demand and a rebound in tourism that is boosting domestic consumption.
Banks Revise Forecasts
Morgan Stanley now sees full-year GDP at 4.8%, up from 4.5%. UBS lifted its projection sharply from 4.0% to 4.7%, and Goldman Sachs nudged its forecast from 4.6% to 4.7%. ANZ was even more bullish, upgrading its outlook from 4.2% to 5.1%. Economists credit proactive fiscal measures and improving corporate earnings.
Investor Confidence Rises
Market sentiment has flipped positive. Citigroup upgraded Chinese consumer stocks from "neutral" to "overweight," and Invesco's Asia ex-Japan CEO Martin Franc highlighted a growing consensus around China's tech leadership. "Investors don't want to be left behind," Franc said, pointing to a unique opportunity in the country's evolving digital landscape.
Looking ahead, some banks caution that slower export growth could temper momentum in the second half, making upcoming policy moves and economic data critical. For now, though, the upbeat picture is resonating from trading floors to startup hubs across the G20, signaling renewed confidence in the world's second-largest economy.
Reference(s):
International banks raise China GDP forecasts on strong data
cgtn.com
