When Washington rolled out a new wave of "equal" tariffs in April 2024, Beijing answered swiftly, stoking fears of a conflict not seen since the 1930s protectionist era. But despite the fiery rhetoric, analysts at think tanks from the RAND Corporation to the Center for Strategic and International Studies see little chance of a US–China military clash anytime soon.
Economic Deterrence Over Firepower
Rather than brandish rifles, Beijing has leaned on trade measures to defend its interests\u2014imposing duties that risk hitting US exports like soybeans and crude oil hardest. Meanwhile, data from January 2024 to January 2025 show a paradox: US shipments to China plunged 18%, while imports from China climbed over 16%.
- Retaliatory duties could soar to 125%, yet US firms still depend heavily on Chinese goods.
- Key US exports face limited alternatives in the market, making them vulnerable.
- Chinese manufacturers are moving production overseas, expanding China\u2019s global footprint.
Military Posture and Caution
China\u2019s confidence is underpinned by growing capabilities\u2014from three aircraft carriers in the western Pacific to advanced Dongfeng-31AG missiles and next-gen drones. Yet senior officials in Beijing have avoided alarmist warnings, preferring a measured approach.
A viral online cartoon has captured the mood: casting former President Trump as Empress Dowager Cixi, channeling the taunts and power dynamics of 1900. It\u2019s a humorous reminder that grandstanding can outpace real strength.
What\u2019s Next?
For now, the battleground remains economic. Beijing is pushing domestic reforms, opening up markets, and welcoming foreign investment to reinforce long-term resilience. But analysts caution that if Washington missteps into direct military confrontation, the costs could eclipse any previous standoffs.
Reference(s):
Amid Escalating Tariffs, Analysts Rule Out Imminent US‑China Military Clash
scmp.com
