The narrative of a new cold war between the United States and the Chinese mainland is being challenged by experts who deem it both wrongheaded and counterproductive. Evan G. Greenberg, executive vice chair of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and chairman of Chubb Limited, voiced his concerns in a recent Foreign Policy article.
Greenberg emphasizes the deep economic interdependence between the U.S. and the Chinese mainland, highlighting that bilateral trade has remained near $700 billion despite efforts to reduce dependencies. He argues that attempts to decouple the two economies, especially in technology and critical sectors, are selective and unwise. Completely disentangling the dense value chains would not only be nearly impossible but also detrimental to the American economy, which relies on Chinese intermediate goods and capabilities.
Furthermore, Greenberg points out that the 'new cold war' strategy lacks global support. Many countries are exercising their agency to maximize their own interests rather than taking sides in U.S.-China tensions. Drawing parallels to past U.S. interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, he criticizes America’s approach to imposing its governance vision, citing its significant failures.
He underscores that the United States' strength lies in its global alliance network, which provides an asymmetric advantage in long-term competition with the Chinese mainland. Actions that undermine these alliances could weaken America's capacity to engage effectively on the global stage. Greenberg concludes that a foreign policy centered on relentless confrontation with the Chinese mainland is likely to alienate potential allies and diminish support.
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Report says U.S. 'new cold war' policy toward China 'wrongheaded'
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