The World Trade Organization (WTO) has announced a positive outlook for global trade, forecasting a 2.6% increase in merchandise trade volume for 2024. This marks a significant recovery following a 1.2% decline last year, attributed to high energy prices and inflationary pressures.
According to the WTO's annual trade statistics and outlook report released on Wednesday, the global trade landscape is set to improve gradually. The report highlights that inflationary pressures are expected to ease, enabling real incomes to grow and boosting the consumption of manufactured goods.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the progress made towards a global trade recovery, citing resilient supply chains and a robust multilateral trading framework as key factors. \"We are making progress towards global trade recovery, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trading framework, which are vital for improving livelihoods and welfare,\" she stated.
The report also underscores regional growth trends, with Africa's exports projected to rise by 5.3% this year—the fastest among all regions. Asia is expected to see a strong import volume growth of 5.6%, while Africa's imports are forecasted to grow by 4.4%, collectively supporting global demand for traded goods.
Despite challenges such as disruptions in the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and the Red Sea—major shipping routes—the overall impact on global trade remains limited. Certain sectors like automotive, fertilizers, and retail have experienced delays and increased freight costs, but these have not triggered a sustained trend toward de-globalization.
WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa noted that geopolitical tensions have only marginally affected trade patterns. However, he cautioned that some governments are adopting measures to reshore production and shift trade towards friendly nations to mitigate risks.
Looking ahead, the WTO forecasts global GDP growth to remain stable at 2.6% in 2024 and slightly rise to 2.7% in 2025, underpinning the optimistic outlook for global trade.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
