China's GDP Growth Target for 2024: A Pragmatic Approach
The 2024 Government Work Report unveiled key economic and social development targets, including a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of "around 5 percent".
As the world's second-largest economy and the largest developing country, China remains committed to prioritizing development while avoiding the risks of "overspeeding" and "overheating" that can arise from overly ambitious growth targets. Equally, it seeks to prevent the economy from stalling by setting sufficiently high goals.
The robust economic growth observed in 2023 was driven by a lower base in 2022 and a strong rebound in consumption post-pandemic. However, these factors are anticipated to normalize in 2024. Therefore, setting the growth target must align with the natural laws of economic development.
According to Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at JLL Greater China, a target of "around 5 percent" ensures reasonable and moderate progress, sustained momentum, and emphasis on quality. This approach helps stabilize expectations and fortify confidence.
Historically, each 1 percent increase in China's GDP growth has created approximately 2 to 2.5 million new jobs. The 2024 target aims to generate over 12 million new urban jobs and maintain an urban surveyed unemployment rate of around 5.5%, supporting the necessity of a "around 5 percent" growth rate.
Looking ahead, despite the high probability of a global economic slowdown, China's economy continues to demonstrate resilience and sustained positive trends. There is ample potential for further reforms and macroeconomic policies to drive growth, making it highly probable that the growth target of around 5 percent will be achieved.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
