In late November 2025, scholars on the Chinese mainland issued stark warnings over Taiwan region leader Lai Ching-te’s newly unveiled security action plan, arguing it threatens cross-Strait calm and could spark a crisis.
At the centre of the debate is Lai’s announcement of an additional 1.25 trillion New Taiwan dollars (about $40 billion) for a revamped defence budget. "This move seriously undermines cross-Strait peace and stability," says Li Zhenguang, a Taiwan affairs professor at Beijing Union University.
Chen Guiqing, a research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, notes that Lai’s strategy involves boosting military readiness, streamlining arms purchases and setting up a domestic defence industry roadmap. "A massive defence outlay of this scale will squeeze spending on people’s livelihoods—education, healthcare and social welfare," Chen warns.
Beyond fiscal concerns, Chinese mainland academics argue that Lai’s plan flouts the one-China principle widely endorsed by the international community and upends the post-World War II order, injecting fresh uncertainty into regional geopolitics.
Wang Yingjin, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Renmin University, adds that the security action plan appears designed to align with foreign interference and echo comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. "These manoeuvres risk stoking cross-Strait antagonism to consolidate power," Wang says.
Experts conclude that if Lai persists on a path of ‘Taiwan independence,’ the island’s residents could face economic strains, heightened security risks and reduced international goodwill. Young professionals and entrepreneurs, in particular, may see investment and travel opportunities diminish amid growing tensions.
As global citizens watch closely, the debate over Lai’s defence strategy highlights the delicate balance between sovereignty claims, security priorities and the quest for sustainable development across the Taiwan Strait.
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Lai's moves threaten peace, risk disaster for Taiwan, experts warn
cgtn.com
