Global trade surged by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a slower growth pace but reflecting resilience amid headwinds, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
In its Global Trade Update report released on Tuesday, UNCTAD highlighted persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions and signs of weakening global growth as factors clouding the secondāhalf outlook.
Trade value rose by about 1.5% in the first quarter and is projected to expand by 2% in the second, driven in part by rising prices. Trade volumes, however, grew by just 1% as prices for goods edged up in early 2025.
Services trade remained the standout performer, climbing 9% over the last four quarters and underscoring a shift in global demand patterns.
Merchandise trade showed mixed trends: developed economies outpaced developing peers in Q1, buoyed by a 14% surge in US imports and a 6% rise in exports from the European Union. The United States also saw its trade deficit widen over the last four quarters, fueling deeper imbalances.
UNCTAD warned that recent US tariffs, including a 10% baseline on steel and aluminum, raise risks of trade fragmentation. It cautioned that further unilateral measures could spark new tensions and undermine growth.
Reference(s):
UN: Global trade grows by $300 billion in H1, outlook still uncertain
cgtn.com
